// EV Calculator · July 2026
PackDrawEV Calculator
Calculate the expected value of any PackDraw pack before you open it. Enter your pack details to see the house edge, RTP, and how many opens until your next win.
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Pack Calculator
Deals Calculator
Prize tiers (up to 6)
Total probability: 0%
Calculate EV
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How to use this calculator
01
Find the pack details
On PackDraw, click any pack to see the full prize pool. Note the pack price, item values, and the probability (odds) for each prize tier.
02
Enter the tiers
Group similar items into tiers. Enter the value and probability for each tier. Make sure probabilities add up to 100%.
03
Read the results
Check the RTP — anything above 75% is good value for a mystery box platform. The break-even number tells you how many opens on average before you land a profitable item.
What is expected value?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you'd receive per open if you opened the same pack thousands of times. It's calculated by multiplying each prize's value by its probability and adding the results together.
For example, if a $50 pack has a 10% chance of a $200 item and a 90% chance of a $20 item, the EV is (0.10 × $200) + (0.90 × $20) = $38. That means the house edge is 24% — on average, you lose $12 per open.
No pack on any mystery box platform has an EV higher than the pack price — the house always has an edge. The question is how big that edge is. This calculator helps you find out before you spend.
Once you know which packs carry the smallest edge, cross-check them against our ranking of the best PackDraw packs , and read the full PackDraw strategy guide to learn how to stack bonuses and pick the highest-EV game modes.
FAQ
What RTP is good on PackDraw?
Anything above 75% RTP is good for a mystery box platform. Most PackDraw packs sit in the 65–75% range. The free level packs and Deals mode (under 2x multiplier) tend to offer the best RTP. Anything below 60% should be avoided unless you're chasing a specific jackpot item.
Is the Deals mode worth it?
Deals mode is generally the highest-EV play on PackDraw, especially at low multipliers (under 2x). At 1.5x multiplier, the implied RTP is around 67% — better than most packs. At 1.2x, you're paying just 20% over retail for a coin-flip chance at the item. Use the Deals Calculator tab above to run the numbers.
How accurate is this calculator?
This calculator is mathematically exact given the inputs you provide. The accuracy depends on how precisely you enter the prize values and probabilities from PackDraw's item pool. PackDraw shows odds for every item — use those numbers directly for the most accurate results.