How to use this calculator
What is expected value?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you'd receive per open if you opened the same pack thousands of times. It's calculated by multiplying each prize's value by its probability and adding the results together.
For example, if a $50 pack has a 10% chance of a $200 item and a 90% chance of a $20 item, the EV is (0.10 × $200) + (0.90 × $20) = $38. That means the house edge is 24% — on average, you lose $12 per open.
No pack on any mystery box platform has an EV higher than the pack price — the house always has an edge. The question is how big that edge is. This calculator helps you find out before you spend.
FAQ
What RTP is good on PackDraw?
Anything above 75% RTP is good for a mystery box platform. Most PackDraw packs sit in the 65–75% range. The Daily Pack and Deals mode (under 2x multiplier) tend to offer the best RTP. Anything below 60% should be avoided unless you're chasing a specific jackpot item.
Is the Deals mode worth it?
Deals mode is generally the highest-EV play on PackDraw, especially at low multipliers (under 2x). At 1.5x multiplier, the implied RTP is around 67% — better than most packs. At 1.2x, you're paying just 20% over retail for a coin-flip chance at the item. Use the Deals Calculator tab above to run the numbers.
How accurate is this calculator?
This calculator is mathematically exact given the inputs you provide. The accuracy depends on how precisely you enter the prize values and probabilities from PackDraw's item pool. PackDraw shows odds for every item — use those numbers directly for the most accurate results.
Start with a bonus
Use code dijaboy for 5% on every deposit
More balance means more opens — and better chances of beating the house edge.
Open PackDraw with Bonus ↗